First publicly available Storm Surge forecast for Aotearoa - New Zealand

Storm surge is a critical component of coastal flooding and significant portions of NZ’s population and infrastructure are threatened by this weather hazard. A storm surge is an extreme event where low pressure systems (storms) combine with a high tides to cause coastal flooding. MetService, the University of Waikato, the University of Cantabria and Calypso Science collaborated under an MBIE Smart Ideas fund to develop innovative methods for the prediction of coastal storm-surge, applying state-of-the-art machine-learning techniques. 

After analyzing several machine learning models to predict the storm surge over Aotearoa’s coast, we have selected the best algorithm based on metrics that consider both average and extreme conditions. This has been implemented operationally, and predictions are accessible on SwellMap at https://www.swellmap.com/map-forecasts/storm-surge

The forecast shows a national model of Aotearoa New Zealand, and a scale showing blue which means the surge is negative (either there is no surge or the water level is decreased compared to tidal elevation) and red at the other end for a higher sea level height (and a higher risk of storm surge).  

“Without tide” means the model does not factor in tides. The model shows the user the risk of storm surge, regardless of what the tides are. 

The new storm surge forecast is delivered to the outside world using APIs (Application Programming Interface) either as data tiles for map view or time-series for raw data at a given location. These APIs are currently implemented on Swellmap and MetOceanView - MetService’s commercial web platform - and can easily deliver the forecast to other organisations for web or mobile applications. Read more about MetService’s APIs here.  

“This is the first live storm surge forecast for New Zealand openly available to the public," says MetOcean General Manager Dr Brett Beamsley. “All key pieces of code developed during this project have been documented and will be available to the public, allowing any interested parties to leverage some of our work for their own purpose.” 

Click on the map and the value at the associated location will be displayed.

“We will keep improving our storm surge forecasting capabilities,” complements Brett. “We have gained great experience with machine learning, extreme event prediction and storm surge through this project. It enhances MetService’s capability and leverages those skills for other projects, creating opportunities to develop new impactful products.”  

Contact us at enquiries@metocean.co.nz for more information about Storm Surge forecast.