High resolution atmospheric forecast and hindcast models for wind energy in New Zealand

To support the New Zealand government’s net zero target, the decarbonisation of the energy sector is becoming a priority. 

Last week, MetOcean Senior Physical Oceanographer Dr Severin Thiebaut and MetService Research Scientist Dr Ulrich Ebling, attended with great interest the 2022 NZ Wind Energy Conference and Offshore Wind Workshop in Wellington.  

The global offshore wind sector has undergone rapid expansion in recent years with major advances in technology and cost reductions, making offshore wind an increasingly competitive option for large scale energy generation. New Zealand possesses world class offshore wind resources with the potential to attract significant investment.  

The Australian Offshore Electricity Infrastructure Act 2021 (OEI Act) from 2 June 2022 provides a licensing scheme to enable the construction, operation and decommissioning of offshore renewable energy and offshore electricity infrastructure projects in Commonwealth waters.  

The NZ Government has published its first Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) which strongly supports the future development of new renewable generation, and the NZ regulatory framework is expected to be in force by the latter part of 2024. 

“The level of interest and momentum for offshore wind development continues to grow,” says Severin. “There is a special interest in the South Taranaki Bight (20-40 km offshore) thanks to the strong and reliable winds, shallow waters and relatively easy connection to the existing electricity grid. 

“We have developed high resolution historical and forecast wind model of the Cook Strait including the South Taranaki Bight, using state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The spatial resolution of the model is 1.5 km, and several heights can be extracted to match the wind turbine hub heights of the selected devices.  

Example of wind field from our WRF forecast model showing the full NZ domain (left) and the high-resolution model nest of the Cook Strait and Taranaki Bight (right).

“We are working on a 25-year atmospheric (WRF) hindcast model with 4km resolution all over New Zealand. This will bring high quality atmospheric information from multi-year numerical model simulations for any location in NZ, offering key baseline data for project scoping, offshore and coastal design, project planning and environmental impact assessments. 

Copenhagen Offshore Partners (jointly owned by Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners and the NZ Super Fund) has announced plans to investigate a potential 1 GW offshore wind development in South Taranaki (equivalent to 11% of the current electricity demand in NZ) and are currently planning the deployment of a FLiDAR (Floating Light Detection and Ranging device) as part of the feasibility study on the South Taranaki offshore wind project (click here for more information). Also, the BlueFloat Energy, Energy Estate and Elemental Group consortium, recently announced that they, Beach Energy New Zealand, and other offshore wind developers have entered into an agreement to install a fixed LiDAR on Beach Energy’s Kupe gas platform and share the data (click here for more information). 

MetOcean Solutions has over 15 years of experience working in the Taranaki region with high-resolution wave and hydrodynamic models. From coastal, shelf to deep-water areas, we have been providing weather forecast data, hindcasting services and customised solutions in the area. Our team has recently published a long-awaited study on the Taranaki wave climate, long-term statistics of sea state parameters that provide critical knowledge for engineering applications, coastal management and safe operations at sea (read more here). 

“We adhere to the DNV and IEC international offshore wind standards and are excited to support the offshore wind development in NZ,” adds Severin. “We deeply believe that the offshore wind industry will play a major role in decarbonising the NZ energy sector and contribute to a more sustainable future.” 

For further information on the data and services available, please contact us at enquiries@metocean.co.nz